Some Thoughts on crypto from the last 3 weeks bear market!

My aim here is to simplify DEFI a little, helping others with my learning through this 2 years journey so far. This is not an article but like a long tweet.

A) Decision making heuristics

Every trade/Lend/Borrow/LP is a decision that YOU take and should be aware of the upside/Risk. In TA, this is something calculated, i don’t do TA, so i have some heuristics to decide:

• If it is too green, i don’t buy… Just don’t FOMO in anything…
• If it is newly launched farmed, i don’t buy… Farming token is created to incentivize liquidity, thus is freely rewarded…The only case i buy a farmed token is when i farm with it with ETH/BNB/Matic/Sol for example.
• If it is an old launched farmed, I consider buying it…Check the emission and deflation rates, Deflation can be: Staking, Burning via fees…
• If market is too euphoric, it won’t end well…
• When it is a blood bath, better be farming something: LP or staking… then your choice of tokens.
• Launchpad projects proved to be a Rekt in Prod.
• When it is too green, take profit…Experienced people do (Very important).
• If you trade small amounts, multiply them in your trading agenda by 10 or 100, you will understand market movement better… This is how big accounts take profit on a 10% move, while you wait undefinetly for the 100x.
• If it is all over twitter, quite late, go back to sleep.
• Fondamentals eat TA for launch.
• Consider everything overvalued: Tesla Raised 5billions $ with billions of sales… Not evey token should hit billions in MC….ICP?

B) Money flow

Getting into the crypto space, i saw the model where BTC pumps first then big caps, medium caps and small caps. It seems this changed. My take is that currently it is a layer model: Layer 0 pumps (the fee token on a blockchain: Eth/Sol/BNB); then launchpads and AMMs; Then Defi platforms, then memes and general use Dapps…

C) Profit

I have never done that, i just can’t figure out how to do it. I missed 3 opportunities so far Mar 2020/Sept 2020/June 2021 to double my bags… What i see is that on twitter no one ever says he sold. Until your favored token is -50%… Yeah, diamond hand. Now get back to decision making.

D) Macro waves

What happened on Eth on August happened again on BSC in Mar/Apr/May, shitcoins created every second. No gain in playing these, you are playing against the house (insiders in the know)…Full Rekt in prod.

But what could happen, is that we might see the same happening on Solana in the next months, maybe here you can be early. Hathor and Kusama later on…

As i mentioned earlier, Layer 0 is the first to pump, is it?

This is not financial advise. Just some thoughts. May it help you. Any question, you can reach here or on twitter.